The Bay of Broken Promises

On December 2nd and 3rd 1989 Michael Gorbatchev and George H.W. Bush met on the Soviet ship TS Maksim Gorkiy South of Malta, mooring in the Bay of Marsaxlokk. The sea was choppy, which brought the meeting the name “Seasickness Summit”. It is often described as one of the most important summits since the Yalta Conference in 1945, as it marked the end of the Cold War, just about a month after the fall of the Berlin Wall. There was no treaty signed, but a core message by Gorbatchev was: “[…] The world is leaving one epoch and entering another. We are at the beginning of a long road to a lasting, peaceful era. The threat of force, mistrust, psychological and ideological struggle should all be things of the past […]”. Bush’s response was: “[…] We can realize a lasting peace and transform the East-West relationship to one of enduring co-operation. That is the future that Chairman Gorbachev and I began right here in Malta.”

The rest of the story we all know, with different interpretations. The TS Maksim Gorkiy had a dramatic story in the same year, when it hit ice near Norway and began sinking quickly. The Norwegian ship Senja took on 700 people from the ship and managed to stop it from further sinking. More were rescued by helicopter from life boats and ice. Perhaps that was a bad omen for the Malta Summit. Or a good one, given that the ship was rescued, repaired and put back to service. History will tell.

Marsaxlokk Bay, or also Kalafrana Bay in Birżebbuġa, is framed by the power plant with its LPG tanker to the East and the Freeport to the West. But it is still a very pretty area with its turquoise waters and the traditional fishing boats. It was also a set for the award winning Maltese movie Simshar (trailer also below). There is a fish market on Sundays which became a tourist attraction. What I enjoy is a hike along the Maltese West coast, along the cliffs and then going to the place where you get the world’s best Octopus in Garlic. It’s a family business. I am not an “Influenza” and don’t make promotions of my favorite places. But if you write to me in the contact section, and describe why you think you qualify to go there, I may tell you.

I have walked to this bay many times, and always like it as a day’s outing. This time I saw it though a little different, perhaps being overwhelmed by recent events which’s historical trail also crossed this little bay, back in 1989.

Where are all the Superyachts gone?

Even my favourite ship in Cospicua Bay is gone: the U-Boat navigator of the Russian Geographic Society. So are many of the Superyachts in front of Fort Saint Angelo. This is an uncommon time to go to sea for the fun of it. Russian shareholders may want to avoid freezing or seizing their yachts and taking them into international waters. But that’s just a speculation of mine. Honestly, I don’t quite understand how it works legally to “freeze” an asset of a private person who has not even been prosecuted personally. And to seize it, as far as I understand the legal framework, there needs to be public interest and adequate compensation.

Well, please don’t think I am cynical, but with the current money flowing into a relatively corrupt Ukrainian government, we may see other Superyachts returning soon. For all those who help now, please watch your partners carefully. I send my support to the civilian victims, for example, to the Polish Red Cross, and there are also many others who are reliable and transparent. Anyway, the main corruption will just start later, when EU money flows in to rebuild Ukraine. Then is also the time when some of the weapons which are distributed now may end up on the black market and will fuel more instability and terror, perhaps in the Middle East and Central Asia. These mistakes have been made before, right? … “when will they ever learn?” to say it with Marlene Dietrich. So, I will now get milk powder and drinking water sanitiser. That can’t go wrong because any hands this will fall into are for sure innocent.

From Moscow with Love

I heard that Leo Tolstoy’s novel would be renamed into “Special Military Operation and Peace”. No, you may think now: “How can he crack jokes while people are suffering?” German humour? And it’s not even funny. Trust me, I know how bad the situation is. I do everything I can, on all sides of the conflict, to provide tangible civilian aid and good words. Bad words we really have enough.

My view may be unpopular and even wrong, but I really cannot imagine how the supply of weapons to Ukraine can work in the direction of reducing human suffering. Don’t get me wrong: I am not a hippy pacifist dancing into the sunrise for world peace. I just don’t understand how supplying Ukraine with small arms, bazookas and SAMs do anything else than turn Ukrainian cities into unnecessary bloody battlezones. Especially, when they are supplied to untrained, civilian hands. Surprised that ceasefires fail? It also reduces the possibility for Russian (and Ukrainian) soldiers to quickly discriminate between a combatant and non-combatant. So, how do you think that will go? Then there is the discussion to supply Polish-based fighter planes to Ukraine and replace them with F-16. This looks a bit like a PR stunt. Like a comedian had the idea. How do you get them there (the planes, not the comedians)? And what do you do with them? I understand that some US senators think this is a good idea. Well, I also wish President Biden good health. This must be very stressful for him too. Imagine, pushing for an oil embargo against Russia, while being the world’s largest oil producer, at 140 USD / barrel.

Sorry, this was a bit of a cynical rant. But I do think that it is very likely, Russia will achieve its military objectives. So, why can’t we start negotiating the aftermath a little earlier and with less human toll? Like now.

Escalation, war and black humour

Like I was taken by surprise by the falling of The Wall on November 9th in 1989, I am now shocked how fast the curtain is dropping again. I understand the logic and sequence of events, as much as you can follow it in times when war propaganda, Poker and Brinkmanship games have taken over. Now is the 27th of February 2022, a European country is “specially operated to be demilitarised”, and the world is held at gunpoint. All this escalated in less than a fortnight. Yes, the Minsk agreement has not been implemented and war in Eastern Ukraine has been watched (and ignored) by the world for 8 years. Yes, a potential NATO expansion into Ukraine makes it far more of a hiding place for short and medium-range rockets than the Baltics. Yes, American diplomacy can be alien and can be perceived as arrogant. Yes, the main Russian concerns have been ignored in the last minute diplomacy before the “special military operation” in Ukraine. But this shall serve as an explanation for what? For invading a sovereign state? For throwing back the world more than three decades in history? Or even 60 years into a Cuban Missile Crisis scenario? Or even dropping it into the end of history, with new weapon categories? Yes, as in the old Sting piece, “the Russians love their children too”. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, civilians are getting armed. With all respect to the individuals engaging in this, but especially in an urban warfare scenario, this is just a strategy to get more people slaughtered on all sides. Distributing 25 000 AK47 (Kalashnikov) to everybody who claims to defend Ukraine? I would consider it quite dangerous. How does this actually work? I mean, if I need an AK 47 next time to rob a bank, I know where to get it. And now, among others, German-made bazookas (Panzerfaust) and Stinger SAMs are added to that. Isn’t that a little dangerous? I am just asking. Isn’t this arming a partisan war? If yes, is this not a mistake that has been done before multiple times?

President Lukashenko of Belarus is now inviting for peace talks or at least ceasefire negotiations in a location close to Chernobyl. This sounds like a setting for a James Bond movie. I do wish him and the delegations all the best of success for all of us, and especially for people now suffering in Ukraine. And I do hope nobody has a nervous trigger finger. I even feel in the old times, there may have been more communication channels to avoid tactical misunderstanding. Instead, channels are deliberately shut. This worries me.

For Russia falling back on China as a strategic partner: is “system Putin” really so sure, that China will throw an economic lifeline to come to the rescue? Even not talking about the level of Central Government, if I remember correctly from my 12 years of living and working in China, financial institutions will watch their diminishing ROI in Russian investments carefully, and turn their back on it when necessary. And then, what about the long common border between China and Russia’s East? Crossing the Amur/黑龙江 Hēilóng Jiāng river, there are large numbers of Chinese migrating into Russia, which develops the area economically, but also brings risks of community imbalances. I have been there and seen it on the ground. And what happens to the “New Chinese Silk Road”, when a new Iron Curtain comes down? And the Russian elites themselves, being stuck, having assets frozen, having their companies blacklisted? They will not be happy. The Russian middle class, whose savings diminished, will soon have to decide between a holiday in Turkey or a new winter jacket? The same ones who are dreaming of a better life for their kids in a free society. Will they think, this is worth it? And the Russians who get desperate Telegram messages from friends and family in Kyiv and Odesa? Or those who receive the letter, that their son died for a “greater good”? The list can go on and everybody is just losing. Potentially even the people of Eastern Ukraine.

On the other hand, I have to apologize if I missed that Ukraine recently became a shining lighthouse of democracy and human rights. My personal impression was that it would be still a long way, just to handle corruption (somewhere in the category “worse than Romania”). I also encountered Ukrainian professional rioters in Hong Kong in 2019, just flown in to train and brutalize protestors. They used as a personal credential that they were there at the Maidan square in 2014. They were just dangerous assholes, armed with Gerber LMFIIs. But there is another thing, which I failed to realize about Ukraine: Nazis. Sure, there must be some. We have them in Germany too, unfortunately. But most Ukrainians, I know are lovely, friendly and peace-loving people. Like the Russians.

In the end, I guess, we have been all lied to and now just propaganda rages on all sides. Just one, for a change, did very accurate predictions: the US intelligence agencies. Not that I would be a fan, but they were giving fairly accurate predictions, of what is about to happen. New leadership? There is a lot of black humour emerging. I like black humour. But it stops being funny when it meets the current realities.