Where are all the Superyachts gone?

Even my favourite ship in Cospicua Bay is gone: the U-Boat navigator of the Russian Geographic Society. So are many of the Superyachts in front of Fort Saint Angelo. This is an uncommon time to go to sea for the fun of it. Russian shareholders may want to avoid freezing or seizing their yachts and taking them into international waters. But that’s just a speculation of mine. Honestly, I don’t quite understand how it works legally to “freeze” an asset of a private person who has not even been prosecuted personally. And to seize it, as far as I understand the legal framework, there needs to be public interest and adequate compensation.

Well, please don’t think I am cynical, but with the current money flowing into a relatively corrupt Ukrainian government, we may see other Superyachts returning soon. For all those who help now, please watch your partners carefully. I send my support to the civilian victims, for example, to the Polish Red Cross, and there are also many others who are reliable and transparent. Anyway, the main corruption will just start later, when EU money flows in to rebuild Ukraine. Then is also the time when some of the weapons which are distributed now may end up on the black market and will fuel more instability and terror, perhaps in the Middle East and Central Asia. These mistakes have been made before, right? … “when will they ever learn?” to say it with Marlene Dietrich. So, I will now get milk powder and drinking water sanitiser. That can’t go wrong because any hands this will fall into are for sure innocent.

From Moscow with Love

I heard that Leo Tolstoy’s novel would be renamed into “Special Military Operation and Peace”. No, you may think now: “How can he crack jokes while people are suffering?” German humour? And it’s not even funny. Trust me, I know how bad the situation is. I do everything I can, on all sides of the conflict, to provide tangible civilian aid and good words. Bad words we really have enough.

My view may be unpopular and even wrong, but I really cannot imagine how the supply of weapons to Ukraine can work in the direction of reducing human suffering. Don’t get me wrong: I am not a hippy pacifist dancing into the sunrise for world peace. I just don’t understand how supplying Ukraine with small arms, bazookas and SAMs do anything else than turn Ukrainian cities into unnecessary bloody battlezones. Especially, when they are supplied to untrained, civilian hands. Surprised that ceasefires fail? It also reduces the possibility for Russian (and Ukrainian) soldiers to quickly discriminate between a combatant and non-combatant. So, how do you think that will go? Then there is the discussion to supply Polish-based fighter planes to Ukraine and replace them with F-16. This looks a bit like a PR stunt. Like a comedian had the idea. How do you get them there (the planes, not the comedians)? And what do you do with them? I understand that some US senators think this is a good idea. Well, I also wish President Biden good health. This must be very stressful for him too. Imagine, pushing for an oil embargo against Russia, while being the world’s largest oil producer, at 140 USD / barrel.

Sorry, this was a bit of a cynical rant. But I do think that it is very likely, Russia will achieve its military objectives. So, why can’t we start negotiating the aftermath a little earlier and with less human toll? Like now.

Escalation, war and black humour

Like I was taken by surprise by the falling of The Wall on November 9th in 1989, I am now shocked how fast the curtain is dropping again. I understand the logic and sequence of events, as much as you can follow it in times when war propaganda, Poker and Brinkmanship games have taken over. Now is the 27th of February 2022, a European country is “specially operated to be demilitarised”, and the world is held at gunpoint. All this escalated in less than a fortnight. Yes, the Minsk agreement has not been implemented and war in Eastern Ukraine has been watched (and ignored) by the world for 8 years. Yes, a potential NATO expansion into Ukraine makes it far more of a hiding place for short and medium-range rockets than the Baltics. Yes, American diplomacy can be alien and can be perceived as arrogant. Yes, the main Russian concerns have been ignored in the last minute diplomacy before the “special military operation” in Ukraine. But this shall serve as an explanation for what? For invading a sovereign state? For throwing back the world more than three decades in history? Or even 60 years into a Cuban Missile Crisis scenario? Or even dropping it into the end of history, with new weapon categories? Yes, as in the old Sting piece, “the Russians love their children too”. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, civilians are getting armed. With all respect to the individuals engaging in this, but especially in an urban warfare scenario, this is just a strategy to get more people slaughtered on all sides. Distributing 25 000 AK47 (Kalashnikov) to everybody who claims to defend Ukraine? I would consider it quite dangerous. How does this actually work? I mean, if I need an AK 47 next time to rob a bank, I know where to get it. And now, among others, German-made bazookas (Panzerfaust) and Stinger SAMs are added to that. Isn’t that a little dangerous? I am just asking. Isn’t this arming a partisan war? If yes, is this not a mistake that has been done before multiple times?

President Lukashenko of Belarus is now inviting for peace talks or at least ceasefire negotiations in a location close to Chernobyl. This sounds like a setting for a James Bond movie. I do wish him and the delegations all the best of success for all of us, and especially for people now suffering in Ukraine. And I do hope nobody has a nervous trigger finger. I even feel in the old times, there may have been more communication channels to avoid tactical misunderstanding. Instead, channels are deliberately shut. This worries me.

For Russia falling back on China as a strategic partner: is “system Putin” really so sure, that China will throw an economic lifeline to come to the rescue? Even not talking about the level of Central Government, if I remember correctly from my 12 years of living and working in China, financial institutions will watch their diminishing ROI in Russian investments carefully, and turn their back on it when necessary. And then, what about the long common border between China and Russia’s East? Crossing the Amur/黑龙江 Hēilóng Jiāng river, there are large numbers of Chinese migrating into Russia, which develops the area economically, but also brings risks of community imbalances. I have been there and seen it on the ground. And what happens to the “New Chinese Silk Road”, when a new Iron Curtain comes down? And the Russian elites themselves, being stuck, having assets frozen, having their companies blacklisted? They will not be happy. The Russian middle class, whose savings diminished, will soon have to decide between a holiday in Turkey or a new winter jacket? The same ones who are dreaming of a better life for their kids in a free society. Will they think, this is worth it? And the Russians who get desperate Telegram messages from friends and family in Kyiv and Odesa? Or those who receive the letter, that their son died for a “greater good”? The list can go on and everybody is just losing. Potentially even the people of Eastern Ukraine.

On the other hand, I have to apologize if I missed that Ukraine recently became a shining lighthouse of democracy and human rights. My personal impression was that it would be still a long way, just to handle corruption (somewhere in the category “worse than Romania”). I also encountered Ukrainian professional rioters in Hong Kong in 2019, just flown in to train and brutalize protestors. They used as a personal credential that they were there at the Maidan square in 2014. They were just dangerous assholes, armed with Gerber LMFIIs. But there is another thing, which I failed to realize about Ukraine: Nazis. Sure, there must be some. We have them in Germany too, unfortunately. But most Ukrainians, I know are lovely, friendly and peace-loving people. Like the Russians.

In the end, I guess, we have been all lied to and now just propaganda rages on all sides. Just one, for a change, did very accurate predictions: the US intelligence agencies. Not that I would be a fan, but they were giving fairly accurate predictions, of what is about to happen. New leadership? There is a lot of black humour emerging. I like black humour. But it stops being funny when it meets the current realities.

Hole in the sky

The last time I have experienced such a massive closure of airspace for civilians was in the days after September 11th 2001. Two days later, I flew to Buenos Aires and it started with an evacuation of Hannover Airport triggered by a bomb threat. Finally, we arrived well in Argentina, where the country was in a severe economic depression and surging inflation driven by the pegging of the Argentinian Peso to the USD. Later, in December that year, Argentina busted into riots, and Argentina declared state bankruptcy. In all of this, we had a car factory, with ambitious targets of the newly appointed company president for Argentina, Viktor Klima. Viktor gained experience as a politician before, being the Chancellor of Austria from 1997 to 2000. It took me a while back then, to understand that actually, a former politician can achieve more in this environment than a bunch of restructuring managers.

Back then, there were no cool internet tools to map the airspace, so I literally drew up my maps on the back of an envelope, continuing travel to Brasil, Mexico and finally the US.

Today, it’s a few clicks on the web browser to see a huge hole in the sky over Ukraine and parts of South-West Russia. Personally, I was surprised to wake up to the news, that Russia actually did launch a “special operation” last night, claiming to take out Ukrainian military infrastructure. Russian friends told me, that this clearing of the airspace and rerouting of civil flights started visibly at one in the morning and this hole took shape at around 3 a.m. This morning at shorty after 9:00 Russian media reported that the Ukrainian air defence is largely destroyed. Who knows, what’s true. But given that airspace interference started visibly to the public, just after midnight, I can’t quite understand why Western Media acted so surprised in the morning. Not paying attention? Making a drama? Well, it’s dramatic enough, if you ask me.

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Source: www.planefinder.net (accessed on 24.02.2022 at 12:50 GMT+1)