Weatherproof built up

My construction in Hundsrück is going forward, even though a lot of obstacles have not been anticipated and now cause additional steps and delay. But given the fact that the first one and a half years, it was all just paper pushing, now I can see progress nearly every day. The house is now built up weatherproof, painted from outside and doors and windows are fitted. Luckily the weather is getting better. Heavy machinery is hard to move on muddy rounds. Now, the major part is to connect the house to utilities. This needs first an about 70 m trench of 1.20 m depth to make it frost proof. And also, because the land is not flat there needs to be a pump installed. There is quite a cost explosion compared with the original plans. But I consider it better to fix up everything in a very solid manner, instead of having to deal with issues in the next few years. If all goes well, then it will be finished by this summer.

Land of Ice and Fire

Iceland does not feel like changing scenery - it is like changing planet. Going for a week off road in Iceland’s South is a good thing to do, while on my construction site the house foundation went through the finish line. April is a little to late for a good chance to see Northern lights. But Iceland has a lot to offer: glaciers, volcanos, waterfalls, geysers and all you need to push a 4x4 to the limit. Equipped with a 2022 version of the Suzuki Jimny. This car is like a gecko. It goes up everything. With a curb weight of just above a ton, crossing rivers it has a bit of a handicap though. But with anything else, this is a perfect car to go quite extreme. And that’s what Iceland is - extreme.

Driving around the whole island in a week, is a little too much behind the wheel. That’s why I focused on South Iceland, took more stops. Walking towards the glacier lagoons gave me the opportunity to see the effects of climate change and to recall my University lectures in glaciology. From the most recent end moraine you walk around to 2 km to the lagoon. Then it’s another 500 - 800 meters to the glacier itself. This looks like the retreat of ice in the last about 100 years. And that’s a lot. I have seen similar scales in New Zealand a few years ago - maybe even more. I do appreciate all the effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions. But it does look to me, that we better also start to also prepare coping with what’s coming anyways. And then there is the whole field of climate engineering, which I studied quite intensively during my PhD time. I am pretty sure, that the whole topic of global warming is too serious to keep it to the hippies trying to fix it by drinking oat milk and soy beans. And anyway the concept is known at least since I started studying in 1986. It’s a little late for voodoo, right?

The last two days I spent in Reykjavik to give the trip an urban ending and troll around with humpback whales and dolphins in the Reykjavik Bay, which was fun.

The last dirty mile (is really dirty)

The last stretch is actually less than a mile. But getting the building material on the construction turned out to be quite complicated. The truck came with amounted crane and a trailer with a trailer. So the procedure was to park the trailer, and first lift the parts like insolation material, windows, doors and roofing in. Then reload the 4 packs of cladding from the trailer on the truck and repeat. However, one pack has slightly under 2 tons and as the access road is narrow, it was not possible to stabilize the truck. The alternative was to drive a small bulldozer in first, mount a fork, and then lift the packages off from the side. Just after the first pack was off the truck, it started raining and the dozer sank in the mud. Stuck. So, the other 3 packs had to be placed on a parking place close and stay there a few days, until the surface can be covered with gravel. Not perfect, but no other way possible.

With all these heavy machines running in his forest, somebody seems to meditate on “tell me where the flowers are”. It will need a bit of gardening after.

Construction begins

Besides work, quite a few things are keeping me busy at the moment: 1) building a wooden weekend house in a forest region up the Upper Middle Rhine Valley and 2) moving my houseboat away from Lathum (Netherlands) south through the canals. In both, I am learning quite a bit each day, and for those who may plan to do something similar, I thought I share some experience. It may sometimes be quite brief because the first lesson learned is: I am very, very busy.

Let’s start with the house. It’s an assembly kit made in Lithuania and provided by the company Pineca. The model is called “Adaline” and has 50 m² with a tilted roof. It’s an insulated version to make sure it can be used in winter. It also comes with an optional 24 m² Terrasse, which I had to shorten a little, as the land title only allows 70 m² max built surface.

Perhaps it’s worth mentioning that the administrative process until construction could start was quite lengthy. First came a one-year legal battle with the seller of the land. I was not aware that the sales were in the context of an inheritance settlement between two daughters, one of which was a (very nasty) lawyer. What I learned here is that just by claiming nonsense and writing idiotic letters, people can slow you down forever. It does not matter to be right when somebody knows to play the game of throwing roadblocks into the process. Luckily, I was able to settle after a year. Then came the building permit. The first application was rejected because my architect filed for a “holiday house” (Ferienhaus) instead of a “weekend house” (Wochenendhaus). It’s the same house, but a “holiday house” is a “touristic installation” which can not be granted in that region. So, now you think: fust change the word. No, not in Germany. Here it would be best if you reapplied from the start. Another half year passed, including a necessary re-drawing of plans because the fond used was too small for the micro-fiche archiving. Yes, Germany in the year 2023 - micro-fiche. The lesson learned here was to take an architect who knows people at the local building administration (Bauamt) instead of the building. You may also ask why you need an architect to apply for building an assembly kit house, anyways. Well, you need.

Luckily the company Pineca was super tolerant, coping with these delays. At some point, they wanted to deliver quickly, after the suggested date when the building permit was expected. So, they started production and things needed to stay in the warehouse for over half a year. But finally, clearance came at the beginning of March, after over 2 years of paper pushing on my side.

The land is slightly tilted and my plan to build close to a small road, where sewage, fresh water and electricity is available had to be revised, due to some building regulations. So now, it’s getting a little more complicated with getting utilities connected. Also, the delivery was outsourced to a logistics company and they did not make any enquires on the conditions, turning up with a 40 ton truck and a stapler. The German driver was completely un-inspired and a rather rude fellow, refusing to even give it a try to deliver the last few 100 meters and unload. On top of that one hail storm after the next came down. So, I called a friend who luckily knew a friend about 1 hour drive away with a large timber company and space to unload and store material for a short time. If he would not have agreed to help me, I would have really been in a fix.

Now the material is at MS-Holz in Wiesbaden and the owner helped me to find a local logistics company called Pauly with a truck, having a crane mounted and a trailer. That should do. It’s about 9 m load and the heaviest pack is 1,8 tons. 4 large packages are each 6 m long.

Another chapter is the foundation. Here I had several offers, of which I decided for a local young entrepreneur contractor. It was by far not the cheapest offer, but fairly priced and competent.

The process is as follows: 1) the surveyor marks the building site roughly for the excavation, 2) the excavation is done and gravel to protect from frost is filled in. Then, 3) the surveyor marks the site precisely and the concrete is pored in and finished. The foundation itself is laid out by a static planning, including how much steel has to be in the concrete.

So, now things can really get started and I will continue sharing experiences. Of course, should you bump into this site online through a search engine, and have specific questions, please feel free getting in tough through the contact form.

TIAS and on to Zürich

Last week was the first time I taught my Strategy Course at TIAS (Tilburg Institute of Advanced Studies) in the EMBA Programme. And I really enjoyed it. Great participants from all kinds of industries and walks of life, which reflect the structure of the Dutch industry landscape. TIAS developed into a highly regarded business school, which Tilburg University and Eindhoven University own. Teaching this course gave me a really good insight into the current challenges of Dutch companies, which are different from what we experience in Germany. For the future, I will also restructure my course a bit to reflect these differences.

After driving back from Tilburg, with a quick stopover in Germany, I flew from Frankfurt to Zürich to work the next week. Normally, I would have taken the train for such a small distance. But the German railway is currently in such a desolate condition that I took the plane. The flight time was just 35 minutes. With the German Railway, such a trip is completely unpredictable and can take you a whole day, if you arrive at all.

Arriving in Zürich is nice: friendly, quiet, efficient, clean and safe. Switzerland appears to be everything Germany is not anymore. So, I am looking forward to start my week here.

Carl Hahn

It was more than 26 years ago. As a young manager in Wolfsburg, I had the honor and privilege to be invited to Dr Carl Hahn’s 70th birthday. And when I say “honor and privilege”, I really mean it. This was a surprise invitation for me, as my former girlfriend was his assistant, and she asked me to join her. So, I did, and we chatted, joked, and got to know Dr Hahn’s wonderful American-born Italian wife Marisa and his children, together with other guests. I remember that I borrowed a pen from him in the garden to note something down. It was a cheap one-way pen from the VW office supply, and he handed it with a smile, demanding to return it after use, as it “is valuable”. We had a few more meetings in his office at the Wolfsburg Art Museum, one when I was already in China and returned to HQ for a business trip. Once, he actually fell into a construction ditch the day before and hurt his leg. So, he asked me to hand him the wastepaper basket to put up the leg, and so I sat opposite a pioneer in globalisation talking about China. Carl Hahn initiated the joint venture between Volkswagen and SAIC in Shanghai, becoming operational in 1984. When we celebrated the 20th anniversary in Shanghai in 2004, the CEO of Volkswagen Group, Ferdinand Piëch, put us in a fix. His office informed us that should Hahn be invited, Piëch would not attend. I always avoided Piëch, because when he looked at you, it was so piercing that you may better take an Aspirin before. There were, and for sure still are, a few of these characters at VW. It was the time I learned that organisations are not run through an org chart, but warlords run them. Still, the 2004 celebration turned out to be like living in Martin Posth’s book “1000 days in Shanghai”, describing how the joint venture was set up. Many of the book’s characters became alive in front of me. And they were friends. Of course, I also read Daniel Goedevert’s book “Like a bird in an aquarium”, looking back at his time as CEO at Volkswagen. I never met Daniel Goedevert though.

Last year I was still in touch with Dr Hahn’s office to arrange a meeting. One point I wanted to convey was to thank him for being an inspiration and role model to me. Even sometimes during my travels, when it became tough, I thought of him in his 80s going somewhere in rural Tajikistan to negotiate setting up a shoe factory for Deichmann. Due to the Covid protocols, our meeting was postponed several times.

Yesterday, on January 14 2023, Dr Carl Hahn passed away in his home in Wolfsburg, aged 96. He follows his wife Marisa Traina Hahn. He leaves behind his children, grandchildren and friends. The world lost one of the great industrialists and visionary managers. And many lost their mentor and godfather of their careers. I regret, I could not thank him in person.

Winter 2022/23 is over

The time of my birthday is usually the coldest time in the Middle-European winter. But not this year. I made the boat winterproof in December, when there were actually some minus degrees. But now it is at times + 14 °C, while -14 °C would be seasonally possible. The next 10 days forecast also stays above zero. So then, if no cold snap surprises us, winter here is over. Well, it helps the gas bills as also the heating season is mild like I cannot remember it from before.

My birthday, this year, I went to my birth town and visited the hospital in which it all started back in 1966, during a snow storm. It’s the Brüderhaus St. Josef in Koblenz located in Kardinal-Krementz-Straße. This hospital was founded in 1899 by Brother Peter Friedhofen, who before started the Catholic congregation of Barmherzigen Brüder von Maria Hilf in 1850. My short visit this year was on a rainy day, not a snowstorm at all.

Of course, people debate whether this weather change is in the context of man made climate change. Seems very likely, yes. But in any case, I decided, perhaps prematurely, to wave winter goodbye and start spring time. After Covid and war in Ukraine, with all it’s implications, it’s good to have some light in 2023.

Brüderhaus Koblenz

Boat on the river

I returned to the Netherlands. It’s raining, 6° Celsius, and it gets dark at about 17:00 (5 p.m.). But I am staying on my boat, and it’s cosy inside. The gas heating is doing a good job. I was going out with a thermal camera to spot some weak spots in terms of insolation potentially. But there are non. Also, I ran the engine for some hours, put more air into the fenders and tightened things up for potential autumn storms to come. There is now no wind at all, and the water is like a mirror. That’s a little uncommon for the season, definitely when compared with last year, when heavy storms swept over this land.

This is the second winter on the boat. The marina is nearly empty, as many took their boats on land for maintenance. I will do so only briefly before I am planning to take the boat through Belgium to France in the coming spring and find a harbour in Alsace.

A boat is a lot of work. And they have a character. You better learn about it. It took me 2 hours to figure out a problem with the DC/AC-Inverter. Then many hours small maintenance items and cleaning. Finally, also the dingy had a problem. I pumped out the rainwater and slipped on the wooden plans, smashing my knee. But all okay.

My favorite Social Media: Postcrossing

Recently, I enjoyed “Postcrossing” after I heard about it on a German radio station. It is a global platform organizing the exchange of postcards among enthusiasts. As I buy postcards in most places I go, I do have quite a collection. But I am not really a collector, and enjoy sending and receiving them much more. So “Postcrossing” is for people like me and me. Like every medium, there is a self-selection of people who choose it. And this group is a very nice and interesting one. Today, after coming home from a morning lecture at the Wiesbaden Academy of Fashion and Design, I found a card from the Russian city Sarov (Саро́в) in my mailbox. I knew it was a closed city as it contains a Russian Nuclear Research Centre and Rosatom. Previously it was also called Gorkiy-130 (Горький-130), Arzamas-16 (Арзама́с-16) and Kremlyov (Кремлёв). So, I started to read more and it is fascinating.

Genuinely entered the 21st Century: got a Tablet Computer

On my way out, I picked up a 5G tablet computer. It’s running on Android, and one of the beauties is that I can really write with a “pen” on it. While many predecessors felt more like writing with a banana in the sand, this one is really (!) good. I also considered e-ink tablets like, for example, the “Remarkable 2”. But I had this Samsung T8 5G and the Remarkable side-by-side, and clearly, in a world of video calls, the Samsung is far more of a versatile tool - even I do like the e-ink display for reading. In terms of price, the weakness of the Euro was compensated by having no silly things, like VAT, in Hong Kong.

On a side note: I never quite understood why value creation is taxed in Germany (Value added Tax) while value destruction receives subsidies. I guess that's “Communism with German Characteristics”. Hope one day, some economist can explain this to me. Till then, I am also not planning to buy anything made in Germany, except perhaps food. That also helps them with energy conservation and deindustrialisation. I heard the plan is that the German economy will be run by 2030 on yoga teachers, civil servants and child book illustrators, like their current economic minister (seriously !). Perhaps that is also why I am not quite optimistic that I will have a 5G network available for my new toy in Germany. Wasn’t 5G killing the penguins in Antarctica? No, it caused COVID? Only Huawei 5G causes COVID, right? I am not an expert, so forgive me if I got this wrong. I would have to ask, for example, Greta Thunberg or Annalena Baerbock. But don’t know where to find them. I was too busy to go to Sharm El Sheik (by bicycle).

With this tablet computer, I can also publish blog articles on the fly, which I am trying for the first time. Please be patient should it go wrong on the first few attempts. So, I think this will also help maintain this website better and more frequently. There are big plans for the new year, and sharing some may interest others. I will move my boat to France, for example. And, given that the permit will come through one day, I will build a wood cabin on a piece of forest land. Another thing with “German characteristics” - is getting a building permit. Just try getting a permit for a solar panel in the “lands of poets and philosophers”. No, don’t. I was joking.

But I will keep you posted.

Hong Kong's Year to Rebuild

As I continued coming to Hong Kong, even during the pandemic lockdowns, I could now feel the optimism of an awakening city after hard years. Troubles started in 2019 with violent riots on the streets and then two years of being literally cut off. Still, crossing over to the Mainland, has some quarantine regulations in place, as the situation there is different due to the sheer size of the population and structure of the medical system. It is, of course, still hard for Hong Kong not to be fully connected to the mother province Guandong. But at least for travellers arriving from other parts of the world, arrangements for testing have substituted the quarantine requirements. I personally found this very well organized. Still, shopkeepers told me that with the Euro and the British Pound down against the US$-pegged HK$, European visitors don’t spend. US-Americans are rare these days. So, it will still need Mainland tourists to come. Even they may actually choose to travel elsewhere once this is possible again.

Also, the troubles of 2019, where protests escalated into full-blown riots, disappeared. This is partly because of recent changes in security laws. Some say they are now too strict. But having been here during the peak of rioting in 2019, I am not surprised by such a legal tightening. Also, many have been lured away by the British offer to extend some of their rights in the UK if they hold a British Oversea Passport. I think this is really difficult and mainly plays into the British playbook of getting a (cheap) workforce and money into the country. Still, I wish those who went all the best. In any case, Hong Kong has become stable and safe again, and I am convinced the “Year of Rebuild” will show once again the resilience this city has. Perhaps I even made a small contribution by teaching a skill-based MBA course on Turnaround Management and Corporate Resilience at the University of Hong Kong Business School.

As I have to scale down my own University engagements, this year’s hike on Lamma Island also marked the end of my academic decade. It all started in 2006 when I set foot for the first time on the Island and immediately loved it. For five years, the island became my home in the South China Sea. I should perhaps have never left it. Of course, I will continue teaching Masterclasses and Executive Education also in the future. But it’s now time, again, to get back to business.

Frankfurt-Riga-Tallinn-St Petersburg-Moscow … and back

Since my last scheduled trip to Moscow was diverted to Armenia, I decided to catch up on my Moscow plans. Adjusting to the current travel restrictions, I flew from Germany into Tallinn via Riga, took a bus to St. Petersburg, and continued by the Sapsan high-speed train.

For those of you who might be wondering what life looks like in Moscow at the moment, it appeared perfectly normal to me. Prices have risen slightly, but everything is available. Russian investors have mainly acquired the assets of Western companies which have left Russia, and where possible, they continue the operation. That’s, of course a little easier with McDonald’s, Zara, or IKEA than with a car factory. And, of course, stronger effects will be seen after stockpiles of components are depleted, and it is more difficult to replenish them. Still, my guess is that Russia will be able to get more independent from Western sources, the same way as Europe will manage to get more independent from Russian commodities. Whether this will make the world a better place or shorten the conflict in Ukraine, I doubt.

A highlight of my visit to Moscow was the Morosow-Exhibition in the Pushkin Museum. It is astonishing how the art collector Iwan Abramowitsch Morosow had a very good hand at picking artworks and artists that were back then but not broadly popular yet. This includes 18 paintings by Paul Cézanne. By the Russian Revolution, his collection stopped inevitably, and he left Russia. The artworks were nationalised and split between Moscow and the Hermitage in St. Petersburg. So, it was a rare opportunity to see all the collections in one venue before being divided to their host museums again. The show was returned from previously being presented in Paris. And, of course, there were some hick-ups on the French side, whether it could be returned to Russia in the context of current sanctions. Luckily, it did.

One unfortunate incident was that I may have caught COVID-19 in the museum. I just before added SPUTNIK V to my broad collection of vaccinations, and a few hours after visiting the exhibition, I felt exhausted. So, I blamed it on potential side effects, or even the heat, while strolling over the Red Square later, having ice cream from the Gum. But it turned out to be COVID. Never mind, it was not very bad, and symptoms disappeared completely, even before the first negative test result cleared me off restrictions.

"Solar flares" in the grid

Malta’s communities have added a lot of solar panels recently. So, did my neighborhood in Kalkara. In principle that’s good of course. But with the Maltese electric grid, not being the most sophisticated, it struggles to keep the current within range. I had local surge protectors to keep harm away from small appliances. But with friends, working at Enemalta and telling me about monitoring the very unstable currents in Kalkara, I started to get worried about for example the aircon motherboard being harmed by a surge. To protect that, I looked around and got hold of an AOELEC AURV2 36T over- and undercurrent protector switch from Wenzhou (China). It can take 40 Amps and like that you can just install it in a row with the main house fuses. Then you set the maximum voltage at which it switches off, the minimum, the response time and the recovery time when it switches on again. With my settings, I followed the recommendation by Enemalta: max. 255 V, min., 205 V, switch off delay 2 sec and back on after 18. The only way to know whether it works is to wait and see. So, let’s do that.

AOELEC AURV2 - 36T over- and undercurrent switch

"Wanderlust" Riverboat

t’Eiland Marina near Lathum, Netherlands

With some patches of summer arriving, I am using the time, not just to stay on the boat, but also to get it ready for a move. It is a Campi 320 made by the Polish shipbuilder Rivo. With 9,60 meters long and a displacement of 4,5 tons, it is rather handy. The 320 version is a bit special, because, compared with the 300er, as it allows for a 1.40 m x 2.00 m bed in a separate room. The boat has a living room with a spacious front terrace and a bathroom with a shower. A small back terrace can be reached through an extra door, and here is where also fuel, gas and electrical infrastructure is in closed compartments. The engine is mounted on the frame and it allows up to 25 PHP motorization. Given that I want to start moving it from town to town, probably starting next year, I currently test the Yamaha 9.9 High Thrust. It is a very efficient engine, and because of the flat propeller mounted, equivalent to about 15 BHP. Given the high wind drag of such a “houseboat” though, I am not sure how it will be able to cope with strong winds. It is a riverboat. But even in that category, it goes more for the canals than anything with strong currents.

The current location is in Geldersee (Netherlands") and faces a beautiful lake connected to the Ijssel, which is a distributary of the Rhine and, for the Netherlands, a rather fast waterway. To test the waters there a little bit last weekend, I took me and my dog on a Talmarex 3 m dinghy, powered by a small 4 BHP outboard, to the Rhine connection. On my GPS, I measured about 4 m/s currents at a low water level. So, it took me about 2 hours to travel upstream and 6 litres of petrol for the return trip, staying at 3500 RPM (measured by sound, not instrument).

The houseboat in the current motorization would probably cope with the Ijssel. But I consider it unwise, because of the waves caused by cargo ships. For some of these “guys” time is money, and being overtaken a few times at high speed, where the ship literally sucks 1/3 of the whole river’s water through its system, I don’t think the riverboat copes well with the waves. The maximum specs are at 2 feet. But, I would not like to try.

Pour toi Arménie

In memory of the three heroes of the 1977 movie Mimino, set in Dilijan (trailer, see below).

My first introduction to the Armenian diaspora was in the early 1990s through Hasmik Papian, who was performing at the Bonn Opera. I also had the privilege of meeting some of her friends and family gathering in her home in “Weststadt” of the city with late “Gründerzeit” architecture. Back then, being a young science student, this was a formative introduction to an interesting and new genre. Since then Armenia stayed in my mind, and with the many tragedies and disasters, it faced since 1915, which probably have still not ended with the 2021 ceasefire agreement. Of course, I remember “Pour toi Arménie”, a charity song by the Franco-Armenian Charles Aznavour performed by a group of French singers, to gather relief after the earthquake in December 1988. Even though, I have to say this is a little too cheesy for my taste. For long car drives to the Netherlands recently, I do have some other songs sung by Charles Aznavour in my playlist, for example, “La Bohème” and others of his early chansons.

It took more than 30 years until I set my feet into Armenia for the first time, and I remain being impressed by the country and its people. I was originally planning to go to Moscow last week, but with recent events in Ukraine and the implications this has on logistics, activities have been diverted to Dilijan, a small town two hours drive from Yerevan. With a very tight schedule, I did not have the chance to travel around. But Armenia will be one of my coming destinations, to explore more. What surprised me very much to find in Dilijan was the United World College. Inspired by the UWC in Maastricht, Ruben Vardanyan together with his wife Veronica Zonabend, founded this very impressive initiative and I am happy to see it flourishing and alive.

Mimino (1977). The story of a big dream in Dilijan.

5 years UWC. Another story of a big dream in Dilijan.

B&B (Boat and Bicycle)

It is always a nice and special perspective to approach a countryside or city by boat. It is a detached world from the buzz. Living on a boat, is even a step beyond, specially in the Netherlands. And then there is the second Dutch mode of transport: the bicycle. As my Marina is close to Arnhem, I explored the ride on my folding bike to the city. One objective is also to take the bike to the train station and then fold it up and take the train to Tilburg University. This sounds like a nice commute. The best mode of commuting, I ever had was taking ice skates in winter from my home to the office in Beijing. But also, now boat-bike and train sound like a good option.

Where are all the Superyachts gone?

Even my favourite ship in Cospicua Bay is gone: the U-Boat navigator of the Russian Geographic Society. So are many of the Superyachts in front of Fort Saint Angelo. This is an uncommon time to go to sea for the fun of it. Russian shareholders may want to avoid freezing or seizing their yachts and taking them into international waters. But that’s just a speculation of mine. Honestly, I don’t quite understand how it works legally to “freeze” an asset of a private person who has not even been prosecuted personally. And to seize it, as far as I understand the legal framework, there needs to be public interest and adequate compensation.

Well, please don’t think I am cynical, but with the current money flowing into a relatively corrupt Ukrainian government, we may see other Superyachts returning soon. For all those who help now, please watch your partners carefully. I send my support to the civilian victims, for example, to the Polish Red Cross, and there are also many others who are reliable and transparent. Anyway, the main corruption will just start later, when EU money flows in to rebuild Ukraine. Then is also the time when some of the weapons which are distributed now may end up on the black market and will fuel more instability and terror, perhaps in the Middle East and Central Asia. These mistakes have been made before, right? … “when will they ever learn?” to say it with Marlene Dietrich. So, I will now get milk powder and drinking water sanitiser. That can’t go wrong because any hands this will fall into are for sure innocent.

From Moscow with Love

I heard that Leo Tolstoy’s novel would be renamed into “Special Military Operation and Peace”. No, you may think now: “How can he crack jokes while people are suffering?” German humour? And it’s not even funny. Trust me, I know how bad the situation is. I do everything I can, on all sides of the conflict, to provide tangible civilian aid and good words. Bad words we really have enough.

My view may be unpopular and even wrong, but I really cannot imagine how the supply of weapons to Ukraine can work in the direction of reducing human suffering. Don’t get me wrong: I am not a hippy pacifist dancing into the sunrise for world peace. I just don’t understand how supplying Ukraine with small arms, bazookas and SAMs do anything else than turn Ukrainian cities into unnecessary bloody battlezones. Especially, when they are supplied to untrained, civilian hands. Surprised that ceasefires fail? It also reduces the possibility for Russian (and Ukrainian) soldiers to quickly discriminate between a combatant and non-combatant. So, how do you think that will go? Then there is the discussion to supply Polish-based fighter planes to Ukraine and replace them with F-16. This looks a bit like a PR stunt. Like a comedian had the idea. How do you get them there (the planes, not the comedians)? And what do you do with them? I understand that some US senators think this is a good idea. Well, I also wish President Biden good health. This must be very stressful for him too. Imagine, pushing for an oil embargo against Russia, while being the world’s largest oil producer, at 140 USD / barrel.

Sorry, this was a bit of a cynical rant. But I do think that it is very likely, Russia will achieve its military objectives. So, why can’t we start negotiating the aftermath a little earlier and with less human toll? Like now.

Escalation, war and black humour

Like I was taken by surprise by the falling of The Wall on November 9th in 1989, I am now shocked how fast the curtain is dropping again. I understand the logic and sequence of events, as much as you can follow it in times when war propaganda, Poker and Brinkmanship games have taken over. Now is the 27th of February 2022, a European country is “specially operated to be demilitarised”, and the world is held at gunpoint. All this escalated in less than a fortnight. Yes, the Minsk agreement has not been implemented and war in Eastern Ukraine has been watched (and ignored) by the world for 8 years. Yes, a potential NATO expansion into Ukraine makes it far more of a hiding place for short and medium-range rockets than the Baltics. Yes, American diplomacy can be alien and can be perceived as arrogant. Yes, the main Russian concerns have been ignored in the last minute diplomacy before the “special military operation” in Ukraine. But this shall serve as an explanation for what? For invading a sovereign state? For throwing back the world more than three decades in history? Or even 60 years into a Cuban Missile Crisis scenario? Or even dropping it into the end of history, with new weapon categories? Yes, as in the old Sting piece, “the Russians love their children too”. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, civilians are getting armed. With all respect to the individuals engaging in this, but especially in an urban warfare scenario, this is just a strategy to get more people slaughtered on all sides. Distributing 25 000 AK47 (Kalashnikov) to everybody who claims to defend Ukraine? I would consider it quite dangerous. How does this actually work? I mean, if I need an AK 47 next time to rob a bank, I know where to get it. And now, among others, German-made bazookas (Panzerfaust) and Stinger SAMs are added to that. Isn’t that a little dangerous? I am just asking. Isn’t this arming a partisan war? If yes, is this not a mistake that has been done before multiple times?

President Lukashenko of Belarus is now inviting for peace talks or at least ceasefire negotiations in a location close to Chernobyl. This sounds like a setting for a James Bond movie. I do wish him and the delegations all the best of success for all of us, and especially for people now suffering in Ukraine. And I do hope nobody has a nervous trigger finger. I even feel in the old times, there may have been more communication channels to avoid tactical misunderstanding. Instead, channels are deliberately shut. This worries me.

For Russia falling back on China as a strategic partner: is “system Putin” really so sure, that China will throw an economic lifeline to come to the rescue? Even not talking about the level of Central Government, if I remember correctly from my 12 years of living and working in China, financial institutions will watch their diminishing ROI in Russian investments carefully, and turn their back on it when necessary. And then, what about the long common border between China and Russia’s East? Crossing the Amur/黑龙江 Hēilóng Jiāng river, there are large numbers of Chinese migrating into Russia, which develops the area economically, but also brings risks of community imbalances. I have been there and seen it on the ground. And what happens to the “New Chinese Silk Road”, when a new Iron Curtain comes down? And the Russian elites themselves, being stuck, having assets frozen, having their companies blacklisted? They will not be happy. The Russian middle class, whose savings diminished, will soon have to decide between a holiday in Turkey or a new winter jacket? The same ones who are dreaming of a better life for their kids in a free society. Will they think, this is worth it? And the Russians who get desperate Telegram messages from friends and family in Kyiv and Odesa? Or those who receive the letter, that their son died for a “greater good”? The list can go on and everybody is just losing. Potentially even the people of Eastern Ukraine.

On the other hand, I have to apologize if I missed that Ukraine recently became a shining lighthouse of democracy and human rights. My personal impression was that it would be still a long way, just to handle corruption (somewhere in the category “worse than Romania”). I also encountered Ukrainian professional rioters in Hong Kong in 2019, just flown in to train and brutalize protestors. They used as a personal credential that they were there at the Maidan square in 2014. They were just dangerous assholes, armed with Gerber LMFIIs. But there is another thing, which I failed to realize about Ukraine: Nazis. Sure, there must be some. We have them in Germany too, unfortunately. But most Ukrainians, I know are lovely, friendly and peace-loving people. Like the Russians.

In the end, I guess, we have been all lied to and now just propaganda rages on all sides. Just one, for a change, did very accurate predictions: the US intelligence agencies. Not that I would be a fan, but they were giving fairly accurate predictions, of what is about to happen. New leadership? There is a lot of black humour emerging. I like black humour. But it stops being funny when it meets the current realities.

Hole in the sky

The last time I have experienced such a massive closure of airspace for civilians was in the days after September 11th 2001. Two days later, I flew to Buenos Aires and it started with an evacuation of Hannover Airport triggered by a bomb threat. Finally, we arrived well in Argentina, where the country was in a severe economic depression and surging inflation driven by the pegging of the Argentinian Peso to the USD. Later, in December that year, Argentina busted into riots, and Argentina declared state bankruptcy. In all of this, we had a car factory, with ambitious targets of the newly appointed company president for Argentina, Viktor Klima. Viktor gained experience as a politician before, being the Chancellor of Austria from 1997 to 2000. It took me a while back then, to understand that actually, a former politician can achieve more in this environment than a bunch of restructuring managers.

Back then, there were no cool internet tools to map the airspace, so I literally drew up my maps on the back of an envelope, continuing travel to Brasil, Mexico and finally the US.

Today, it’s a few clicks on the web browser to see a huge hole in the sky over Ukraine and parts of South-West Russia. Personally, I was surprised to wake up to the news, that Russia actually did launch a “special operation” last night, claiming to take out Ukrainian military infrastructure. Russian friends told me, that this clearing of the airspace and rerouting of civil flights started visibly at one in the morning and this hole took shape at around 3 a.m. This morning at shorty after 9:00 Russian media reported that the Ukrainian air defence is largely destroyed. Who knows, what’s true. But given that airspace interference started visibly to the public, just after midnight, I can’t quite understand why Western Media acted so surprised in the morning. Not paying attention? Making a drama? Well, it’s dramatic enough, if you ask me.

---

Source: www.planefinder.net (accessed on 24.02.2022 at 12:50 GMT+1)